Cursed Scroll Experimental Analysis

A World of Confusion

One thing I’ve noticed with the current player marketplace is a lack of understanding of Cursed Scroll’s possible effects and chances. At the very least, it’s inconsistent depending on who you ask; not many players know for sure what they do. So, in this post, I’ll detail my experiments and recordings with them.

First, the details. I did this experiment with Nightstrider Armor (as most players who see me in Nilgarf know I want to get an upgraded one). For 100 pieces of armor, I used cursed scrolls until the armor was destroyed and recorded the stats on each. I did this in “waves” of 20 armors.


Results

These 100 results are very detailed, and will include statistics on each piece of armor. The value of each cursed scroll will be included. For upgrades, the best the armor has been will be counted. For example, if a piece of armor was +10, then upgraded to +11, then downgraded to +10, then destroyed, it will be counted as +11.

The format on the graphs is:

  • Place is the letter assigned to each piece of armor in the group of 20.
  • Sequence is the exact value each cursed scroll gives. 0 is fail, 2 is 2, 3 is 3, 4 is 4, and D is destroy. If there is no D at the end, the armor is maxed and no further scrolls can be used.
  • Amount is the total amount of cursed scrolls used.
  • Upgraded is the best upgrades each piece of armor got.

First 20
Place Sequence Amount Upgraded
A 33D 3 +6
B D 1 +0
C 40200203D 9 +9
D 30002223D 9 +8
E D 1 +0
F D 1 +0
G 033D 4 +6
H 3D 2 +3
I 20D 3 +2
J 2200D 5 +4
K D 1 +0
L 322330300D 10 +9
M 42433022D 9 +11
N D 1 +0
O D 1 +0
P 0333D 5 +9
Q D 1 +0
R 0303233304D 11 +10
S 22D 3 +4
T 3003D 5 +6

Second 20
Place Sequence Amount Upgraded
A 0D 2 +0
B 3334330D 8 +10
C 20003D 6 +5
D D 1 +0
E D 1 +0
F 22420D 6 +8
G 3023203D 8 +9
H 2023323243033D 14 +10
I 30233D 6 +8
J D 1 +0
K 33404D 6 +11
L 230440D 7 +11
M 302D 4 +5
N 3D 2 +3
O 42200D 6 +8
P 44D 3 +8
Q 3D 2 +3
R 333434334 9 +12
S 022D 4 +4
T D 1 +0

Third 20
Place Sequence Amount Upgraded
A D 1 +0
B 042404 6 +12
C 302020D 7 +7
D 3D 2 +3
E 00D 3 +0
F 2043D 5 +9
G 3D 2 +3
H D 1 +0
I 302D 4 +5
J 232D 4 +7
K 4D 2 +4
L D 1 +0
M 2D 2 +2
N 23040D 6 +9
O D 1 +0
P 200332D 7 +8
Q D 1 +0
R 24304324 8 +12
S 3D 2 +3
T D 1 +0

Fourth 20
Place Sequence Amount Upgraded
A 332303432222033400030200D 25 +11
B D 1 +0
C 0D 2 +0
D 444 3 +12
E 2040033233D 11 +11
F D 1 +0
G 234D 4 +9
H 040243224 9 +12
I 3334D 5 +10
J 33D 3 +6
K 2D 2 +2
L 33300D 6 +9
M 4D 2 +4
N D 1 +0
O 40323344 8 +12
P 34023D 6 +10
Q 3403332342333D 14 +11
R D 1 +0
S D 1 +0
T D 1 +0

Fifth 20
Place Sequence Amount Upgraded
A 22D 3 +4
B 30D 3 +3
C D 1 +0
D 3D 2 +3
E 2D 2 +2
F D 1 +0
G 023422D 7 +9
H 32D 3 +5
I 022203220D 10 +7
J 323D 4 +8
K 4D 2 +4
L 0320D 5 +5
M 04424 5 +12
N 033D 4 +6
O 4D 2 +4
P 00D 3 +0
Q 32403233033D 12 +10
R 32D 3 +5
S D 1 +0
T 3D 2 +3

Data Summary and Analysis

Data Summary

Group Total Scrolls +2 Scrolls +3 Scrolls +4 Scrolls Failed Scrolls Destroy Scrolls
First 20 85 16 24 4 21 20
Second 20 97 17 30 13 18 19
Third 20 66 13 12 9 14 18
Fourth 20 106 17 35 18 19 17
Fifth 20 75 18 18 7 13 19
Total 429 81 119 51 85 93
Group +9 Armor +10 Armor +11 Armor +12 Armor Best Armor* Longest Armor**
First 20 3 1 1 0 1M (+11) 1R (11)
Second 20 1 2 2 1 2R (+12) 2H (14)
Third 20 2 0 0 2 3B (+12) 3R (8)
Fourth 20 2 2 3 3 4D (+12) 4A (25)
Fifth 20 1 1 0 1 5M (+12) 5Q (12)
Total 9 6 5 7 4D* (+12) 4A (25)

*For ties, determined by least amount of scrolls used.
**Most amount of scrolls on a single piece of armor.

Data Analysis

Group +2 Rate +3 Rate +4 Rate Fail Rate Destroy Rate Avg. Length Avg. Upgrade
First 20 18.8% 28.2% 4.7% 24.7% 23.5% 4.25 Scrolls +4.25
Second 20 17.5% 30.9% 13.4% 18.5% 19.6% 4.85 Scrolls +5.75
Third 20 19.7% 18.2% 13.6% 21.2% 27.3% 3.3 Scrolls +4.2
Fourth 20 16.0% 33.0% 17.0% 17.9% 16.0% 5.3 Scrolls +5.95
Fifth 20 24% 24% 9.3% 17.3% 25.3% 3.75 Scrolls +4.5
All 100 18.9% 27.7% 11.9% 19.8% 21.7% 4.29 Scrolls +4.93
Projected* 20% 30% 10% 20% 20% 4 Scrolls +5*

*Projected value is my estimation of what the actual value is, since the total values are likely to be off by a small amount.
**The +5 only applies for gear with 3 scroll slots, since those were the subject of this experiment.


Conclusion

As shown in the Projected row in the Data Analysis graph, the most likely Cursed Scroll chances are 20% for +2, 30% for +3, 10% for +4, 20% for fail, and 20% for destroy. The average amount of cursed scrolls you can use on something before it breaks is 4 (including the scroll that breaks the weapon, so 3 is average safe length), and on average you’d get +5 out of using as many cursed scrolls you can on a a piece of gear with 3 scroll slots.

Hopefully you guys are able to take any information you’d like out of this so you can figure out (especially in conjunction with my scroll success calculator) how many scrolls you’re comfortable with using. If anything, this’ll help you save time, money, and your gear from destruction. Once again, remember that these are average results dealing with randomness so they may not always be correct.

In conclusion, use curseds wisely! You don’t want to accidentally destroy your weapon or waste money.

6 Likes

ok nerd

but nice job getting this info out there

Really neat to see this. Clearly a lot of work went into it and your data is really well compiled. Extremely well done.

This hurts my brain cells…

Thanks! It took… some time… to plan and work out, especially the part where I used 429 cursed scrolls on 100 pieces of Nightstrider Armor.

For a second there I was going to ask “how did you get 429 Cursed Scrolls and 100 pieces of Nightstrider?” but then I realised that the testing realm exists.

Yeah, I probably should’ve included that I used Testing Realm in my post since there’s no way I’d be able to afford it in actual Vesteria. I think I spend around 450 Gold total on that.

I used my first cursed just before reading this, now my custom name 5 star webbed staff is gone. I mean, I knew the risks, but what are the odds.
I use tons of ancients, nothing happens, I use just 1, 1 cursed scroll, my staff explodes.

Yep, approx. 1/5 cursed scrolls will immediately blow up your weapon.

never give up till you die


pretty nice data here

Ngl I’m both surprised and sad it didn’t make it…

Finally a not easy to explain Vesteria stuff

It will took my a while to understand this but thank you very much

As a thanks I make you a free GFX for you, reply me with your Roblox username and dress up as an Avatar your want me to render

how much time did this take u lol
how much time do you have on your hands

ok nvm lol

No thanks, it’s fine.

oh okay…

btw thanks for the non spoon fed information

the amount of times it’s destroyed near first try is depressing

26 times. Experimentally about 1/4, but mathematically it should be 1/5

https://gyazo.com/384a84cdcce4d39ed24ea4f6307092b8
just found this scrolling through old discord messages, nice

Incredible. Clearly a lot of effort has been put into this and it’s really interesting, I’ll keep this thread tracked.

Thank you. :bowing_man:

1 Like