Ancient Stat Statistics

The Following Information is Outdated and all Ancient Stats are guaranteed to give a +3 stat points.

Recently, @Alexandra created a quest for a +10 dex Terul’s Talon.

That got me wondering, how possible is that? What is the probability of a +1, +2, or +3 stat ancient?

This test used ~200 of each Stat Ancient, or 800
Note: I suck at counting so the numbers might not add up, also this is in the testing realm.
KEY
F- Fail
1- Success, +1 stat
2- Success, +2 stat
3- Success, +3 stat

Stats

Ancient VIT (Completed)

1: F, F, F, F, F, 1, 1, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, 2
37 ancients, +7
2: F, 2, F, 1, F, F, 2, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 3, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1
33 ancients, +9
3: F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 2, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, 2, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1
33 ancients, +7
4: F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 3, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1
69 ancients (nice), +7
5: F, 3, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 3, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1,
46 ancients, +7
1- 15
2- 5
3- 4

Ancient STR (Completed)

1: F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, 1, F, F, F, F, 1, 2, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 2
28 ancients, +7
2: 1, F, F, F, 1, 3, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, 2
34 ancients, +9
3: F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 3
75 ancients, +7
4: F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 2, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, 2, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 1, F, F, F, F, F, F, F, 3
57 ancients, +9
5: 3, F, F, 2, F, F
6 ancients, +5
1- 13
2- 6
3- 5

First 400
Out of the 400 ancients, 48 succeded. This was below the 60 average, but I just have bad luck. The longest failing streak was 38 ancients, with STR-4.
Of the 48 that succeded, 28 were +1’s, 11 were +2’s, and 9 were +3’s.

This correlates to a 60% chance for a +1 stat scroll, and a 20% chance for a +2 and +3 stat scroll. You have a 9% chance of getting a successful +1 stat scroll, and a 3% chance of getting a successful +2/3 stat scroll.
Average Stat Point per Successful Ancient: 1.6.

Ancient DEX

TBD

Ancient INT

TBD

Conclusion

This is yet to be completed, but the results show that the probability are, 60% chance for a +1 stat scroll, and a 20% chance for a +2 and +3 stat scroll. You have a 9% chance of getting a successful +1 stat scroll, and a 3% chance of getting a successful +2/3 stat scroll.

In the end, you have relatively low odds to fulfill Alex’s quest. Probably shouldn’t bother for it.

Please refer to this post I used Desmos to make a scroll success calculator for use, and this post Cursed Scroll Experimental Analysis as inspiration. Both of these were made by @JonnoTheGamer.

Well someone took after my Cursed Scroll Analysis! Looking forward for completion!


Me and my guildies did it. Took just under 20 scrolls.

4 Likes

Congrats on your 200 gold
now get it to Alex